MEASURING CENTRAL BANK COMMUNICATION: AN AUTOMATED APPROACH WITH APPLICATION TO FOMC STATEMENTS
Session Monetary Policy Transparency B
Event/Category EEA
Session ChairJanine Aron, DEPARTMENT ECONOMICS, OXFORD

Presenter(s) David Lucca, Federal Reserve Board
Co-Author(s) Francesco Trebbi, University of Chicago
Fields Monetary Policy and Central Banking and Empirical Finance
Keywords Monetary Policy Communication
JEL Codes E43, E52, E58

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We present a new automated, objective and intuitive scoring method to measure the content of central bank communication about future policy rate moves. We apply the methodology to statements released by the Federal Open Market Commitee (FOMC) after monetary policy meetings. Using high-frequency financial data, we find that yields on short-term risk-free nominal rates respond both to changes in policy rates and the content of the statements, whereas, medium and long-term rates only respond to changes in communication. Using lower frequency data, we find that changes in the statements lead policy rate moves by about six months both in univariate and vector autoregression models.

 
When & Where
Fri 29 Aug 2008
16:45 - 17:45
Room N19
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