TRANSPARENCY, CREDIBILITY AND PREDICTABILITY OF MONETARY POLICY UNDER INFLATION TARGETING IN SOUTH AFRICA
Session Monetary Policy Transparency B
Event/Category EEA
Session ChairJanine Aron, DEPARTMENT ECONOMICS, OXFORD

Presenter(s) Janine Aron, DEPARTMENT ECONOMICS, OXFORD
Co-Author(s) John Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Oxford University
Fields Monetary Economics, Inflation and Price Setting and Monetary Policy and Central Banking
Keywords monetary policy, predictability and transparency
JEL Codes E43, E44, E52, E58

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The adoption of inflation targeting in 2000 aimed to enhance the transparency and effectiveness of monetary policy in South Africa. Quantitative indexes reveal a strong rise in the transparency of monetary policy between 1994 and 2007. Inflation and interest rate expectations data, forward interest rate data and estimates of an interest rate policy rule, are used to explore the credibility and predictability of monetary policy since adopting inflation targeting. The evidence points to the new monetary policy framework being well-entrenched in financial markets’ expectations as early as 2001. Only small declines in interest rate forecast errors arise thereafter.

 
When & Where
Fri 29 Aug 2008
16:45 - 17:45
Room N19
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