HOUSING WEALTH, CREDIT CONDITIONS AND UK CONSUMPTION
Session Consumer behaviour B
Event/Category ESEM: Econometrics and Empirical Economics
Session ChairJohn Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Oxford University

Presenter(s) John Muellbauer, Nuffield College, Oxford University
Co-Author(s) Janine Aron, DEPARTMENT ECONOMICS, OXFORD and Anthony Murphy, Oxford University
Fields Business Cycles and Consumption
Keywords consumption, credit conditions, housing collateral and housing wealth
JEL Codes E21, E32, E44, E51

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There is wide disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. Much of the empirical literature is marred by omitted controls for the common drivers of house prices and consumption: income growth expectations, interest rates, credit supply conditions, other assets, indicators of income uncertainty and even income. Failure to control for the direct effect of credit liberalization on consumption can over-estimate the effect of housing wealth or collateral on consumption. This paper presents an empirical model grounded in theory, with strong controls, applied to the UK, which experienced substantial credit market liberalization.

 
When & Where
Sat 30 Aug 2008
16:45 - 17:45
Room 31
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