INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS, MEASUREMENT AND FORECASTING
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Presenter(s) |
Ard den Reijer, De Nederlandsche Bank |
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Co-Author(s) |
None |
The abstract for this paper is as follows:
In this paper the business cycles of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald
bandpass filter. Turning points, recession and expansion phases and other descriptive
statistics are derived from these business cylce indicators. Moreover, the international linkage between
two economies is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronism of the two corresponding
cyclical motions. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is
constructed which replicates and predicts the business cycle. This leading indicator is a single index
composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties. The real-time
performance of the constructed business cycle indicator for the Netherlands is compared to the
performance of a similar indicator based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter methodology.
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When & Where |
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21 Aug 2003 |
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11:00 - 12:30 |
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Room F299 |
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Paper Reference: 1991
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