INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS, MEASUREMENT AND FORECASTING
Session BUSINESS CYCLES: EMPIRICAL II
Category ESEM: Econometrics and Empirical Economics
Chair(s) Mathias Hoffmann, University of Dortmund

Presenter(s) Ard den Reijer, De Nederlandsche Bank
Co-Author(s) None
Keywords bandpass filter, business cycle and leading indicators
JELs C82, E32, E37
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The abstract for this paper is as follows:

In this paper the business cycles of nine OECD-countries are identified by applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald bandpass filter. Turning points, recession and expansion phases and other descriptive statistics are derived from these business cylce indicators. Moreover, the international linkage between two economies is investigated by measuring the degree of synchronism of the two corresponding cyclical motions. In addition to measuring the cyclical fluctuation, a composite leading indicator is constructed which replicates and predicts the business cycle. This leading indicator is a single index composed of economic, financial and expectation variables possessing leading properties. The real-time performance of the constructed business cycle indicator for the Netherlands is compared to the performance of a similar indicator based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter methodology.

 
When & Where
21 Aug 2003
11:00 - 12:30
Room F299

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    Paper Reference: 1991